SeekingAlpha網站一篇推薦特斯拉的文章

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https://seekingalpha.com/article ... heap-strong-buy-now


Tesla's epic decline may have culminated in a bottom around the $100 level. Even if Tesla's stock were to travel lower, the downside is likely limited, and with Tesla's stock price at $100 or lower, the shares are essentially a gift. Tesla is trading at around 20 times projected EPS estimates (consensus). However, the stock may sell at 12-15 times forward EPS estimates if the company can achieve higher-end EPS results. Also, Tesla is far from a value stock and could continue delivering 30-20% revenue growth for most of the decade. Therefore, Tesla's stock price is oversold and undervalued and is a strong buy intermediate and long term.

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中國的電動車去年賣4百萬台，是美國的四倍。上海廠去年產出710000台。

China: The Key Component to Tesla's Success

China is a critical market for Tesla. Fortunately, Tesla has the necessary ingredients to do great things in China. Firstly, China remains the crucial and most lucrative electric vehicle ("EV") market globally. China's population is more than four times that of the U.S., with more than 500 million drivers. Moreover, China is exceptionally EV-friendly and has the most dynamic EV market globally. China sold 5.67 million EVs and plug-ins in 2022. More than four million vehicles were 100% EVs, more than five times the number of all-electric vehicles sold in the U.S. last year.

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Tesla is well-positioned to capitalize on China's booming EV transition. The company's registrations surged last month. Tesla delivered more than 710,000 vehicles from its Shanghai factory in 2022. Tesla's sales surged after the company dropped prices in China, illustrating another advantage due to Tesla's economies of scale and remarkably high profitability. Tesla can lower prices in other areas globally to spur sales and improve demand while the slowdown persists. The company can scale prices back up as the next recovery materializes.

Tesla remains the leader in innovation and technology in the EV segment and is akin to the iPhone of electric cars. Therefore, Tesla vehicles should continue garnering substantial demand in China and globally. China EV sales surged by 71% in November, with Tesla delivering a record 100,291 Chinese-made cars. Tesla's Model 3 and Y vehicles remain wildly popular in China and many parts of the world. Tesla should continue growing revenues substantially as its China, Asia, Europe, and other business segments continue expanding in future years.

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While the lowest price target remains incredibly depressed below $100, the average analyst on Wall St. expects the company's stock to appreciate by about 56% by the end of the year. Some very bullish estimates project a stock price of around $350. However, I am more modest and believe Tesla's stock could reach approximately $250 by year-end, doubling from current levels. Moreover, Tesla's stock price could increase several-fold over the next few years.

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預估的EPS到2030年:

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2022年第四季3ysx的銷量:

Q4 - Strong Deliveries Translate to Significant Revenue

Tesla delivered 17,147 Models S/X vehicles, 9% of which were subject to leasing. Therefore, Tesla sold approximately 15,604 Model S/X vehicles last quarter. Using an ASP of $120,000 for Tesla's premium models, the company likely made $1.9 billion in revenues from Model S/X sales in Q4.

Tesla's Model 3/Y segment delivered 388,131 vehicles last quarter, 4% of which were subject to lease accounting. Therefore, Tesla sold approximately 372,606 Model 3/Y vehicles in the fourth quarter. Even with the recent price cuts, I suspect the ASP came in around $50,000. Thus, Tesla's Model 3/Y segment may have delivered around $18.7 billion in Q4.

Tesla's leasing, energy generation and storage, and services segments may have provided around $3.8 billion in revenues in the fourth quarter. Therefore, Tesla's revenues should be around $24.5 billion for the fourth quarter, roughly a 38% YoY revenue increase.