這篇新近文章顯示，當沖成功率約4-5% (文長意也長)

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https://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/13922

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交易是負和，當沖是更快的負和遊戲，所以，一定要想像你的交易對手比你強，然候有一天你要設法變成強者

Day trading isn’t a walk in the park fairy tale. It’s serious business, and the people who do it for a living don’t f*ck around. Day trading is a negative sum game (zero sum if you don’t factor commissions…but commissions and costs exists, making it a negative sum game). If you trade, your profits have to come from someone else losing or giving up a profit. Successful traders have been doing this a long time, and have wiped out many small and new traders. Practiced at taking money, the pro is coming after your orders if he/she thinks he came make a profit of it. Be prepared. Know how you will handle every single situation which may arise, and have a plan for it. Without this sort of preparation, you are a sitting duck, and will join the approximately 96%+ of unsuccessful men, and about 60% of unsuccessful women day traders.

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去做變性手術，可以提供當沖成功率很多…

The overall figures indicate that if you are male, you have about a 3.5% chance of success, and with a solid mentor or putting in at least 1 year of (nearly) full-time effort that average could push up to 10%. As discussed though most men come in with the wrong attitude…they are gambling with their time and money, not really committing to the process and hoping they will hit it big quickly (not likely). If you are serious about trading, and commit six months to a year of really self-evaluating your performance and practicing, I believe your odds of success are high. The day trading success rate is low because most people simple don’t give themselves enough time to learn, or they just keep repeating the same mistakes (often in slightly different ways) forever and never improve.

In my experience, and opinion, women have a much higher chance of becoming successful traders than men. Based on personal experience and discussions with other trading firm managers, 40% of women can likely become successful traders if they are serious, determined and wiling to put in the time and practice.

Are these stats perfect, absolutely not. They are averages and cannot be used to ascertain whether a particular individual will be a successful trader. In talking with other successful traders, most of them thought my numbers were high…because they know how hard it is to find consistency, and keep it. Yet there are successful traders who obviously have overcome the odds. Stay disciplined, focused, and have patience on your journey and your chance of success is much higher…just like in any field. That said, not everyone who practices really hard at basketball gets to play in the NBA. The nice thing about trading is that you decide how much you are comfortable with making. While there are guys making millions a year, if you can make a comfortable living, doing what you love, that is what matters.

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當沖客本質上是專注且無趣的工作，但那是一份馬虎不得的工作

As discussed above, many people (men) come to trading with a “I will give it a shot…” attitude. This will very likely lead you to lose whatever capital you have deposited in your brokerage account. The odds of day trading success are heavily against you. The lure of making money each day in only a couple hours gets people’s minds spinning with possibilities. They imagine stopping everything and just trading on a beach somewhere. Well, sand, water, sun glare and laptops don’t mix. Trading is a job. The difference is that you don’t get a paycheck unless you’re absolutely on the top of your game. Day trading is often boring, which surprises many people. Without the required stimulus from the market, they create their own, making trades which are outside of what was practiced. Other days, an hour or two of trading can leave you mentally, and physically, exhausted. There is so much information to process in such a short amount of time…and you need to stay totally focused in such conditions as a mistake could cost you dearly.

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光是練習交易不夠，要正確專注的練習

Want be in the 4.5% of the day trading success stories? Here’s a taste of what it takes.

All these people who failed, and who were successful, were putting in 6 to 7 hours a day of practice and learning. So you will definitely need to put in time and practice if you want to become successful. As we will learn later though, it is up to you to practice the right way (you can tell someone what to do, as the firm did, but unless they are willing to do it, no amount of practice will improve their skill). I constantly see this on the golf course. Guys have played for thirty years–lots of practice on the course and on the range–yet are no better than the day they started (and they bitch about it). Practice doesn’t make perfect. Instead, perfect practice only leads to improvement. These guys aren’t putting in the right type of practice, and most want-to-be-day-traders aren’t either.

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女性當沖客的成功率有4成(注意小樣本的問題)，而且，如果有女交易員在測，男交易員的成功率會增加

Only 10 women came to trade (smaller sample size) while I was at the firm. Four were able to make a living off the markets. The high success rate of women actually drove up the overall success rate discussed above. If we just look at males, the successful rate drops to 3.4% . So we have a 3.4% success rate for males (10 out of 290…because 290 of the 300 total traders were males), and a 40% success rate for women (4 out of 10). So the overall success rate is still useful to men (still in the 4.5% range), but not as useful for a woman…since a woman’s success rate is likely to be higher than the overall day trading success rate indicates.

I verified these stats with multiple current or former trading firm managers; their stats were very close to those mentioned above, creating a larger and viable woman-trader sample size.

That said, since the sample size is still smaller–subject to greater variation–I will keep the 40% statistic, and say that with a solid mentor it’s quite likely about 4 out of 10 women who want to day trade, and give it a good shot, could be successful at it. In a male-dominate industry, the women who came to trade typically really wanted to do it, and were serious about it. Many of the men who try day trading are doing so with a “I will give it a shot…” attitude. Not a good start. Be serious and commit to the process–just as if you were starting a brick-and-mortar business–if you want to have good odds of day trading success.

Women simply don’t seem to have the mental blocks and ego barriers that males have (some do). They are more readily able to learn from their mistakes. A man will repeat the same mistake over and over again, unable to admit to himself he is wrong because of his ego. Women also listen to those they consider experts; men usually consider themselves experts at everything already, so while they may listen to what a real expert says, they typically don’t do what is taught (most, not all men).

Trading firms and brokers would be well advised to more actively recruit women traders. They’re pretty, smell nicer, and for some strange reason male performance (and behavior) tends to improve when there are some ladies on the trading floor.

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當沖策略的發展上倒是可以不假外求

Arguably, you don’t need strategy guidance either. I have developed my own strategies, and often input from others has actually hindered that objective personal strategy development. A bit of guidance is fine, but since you must ultimately trade on your own anyway (someone else can’t trade for you), starting off with a do-it-yourself-trading-approach isn’t a bad thing.

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如果有人教的話，當沖成功率會倍增

With a mentor, the success rate will increase, but it still ultimately dependents on the individual’s drive to become successful and to put in the work required. With a good mentor (here’s who I recommend), I estimate the successful rate may creep up to 8% to 10%…but I don’t actually have enough data to say definitively. 8% to 10% may seem low for having someone mentor you, but think of it this way: that mentor has doubled, your chances of success over going at it alone. Be careful how statistics are used. Someone trying to solicit you could say “We can increase your chance of success by 167%!” Sounds impressive, but you originally had a 4% chance at success, you now you have about a 10.68% chance. This latter statement gives you much more information than the sales pitch statement.

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文章部分節文:
Regardless of the reason, very few people who wanted to trade actually become successful. Whether they took other jobs, didn’t feel they got adequate training, or just didn’t make enough money isn’t really the point. They came to trade, but ultimately left with nothing in their pockets while people sitting next to them continued to make money. To me that is the real statistic. Whether you’re lured away, your spouse convinces you not to do it, success doesn’t happen as quickly as you want it, you hit a string of bad luck…the excuse doesn’t matter; the cold hard number is that only about 4.5% (the half way point of 4% and 5% concluded above) of traders who start day trading will end up being able to make something of it.