比特幣的合理價

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https://www.marketwatch.com/stor ... s-counting-0c5d0523


Bitcoin’s BTCUSD, -0.87% surge to an all-time high may not say anything about bitcoin’s reality. In fact, it may be nothing more than random fluctuations above and below the cryptocurrency’s fair value.

I base this on a valuation model that, following Metcalfe’s Law, relates bitcoin’s price to the square of the number of users. The chart below — courtesy of data from Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group — plots bitcoin’s actual price over the past decade along with Erb’s application of Metcalfe’s Law.

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Erb in an email reminds us that he’s not proposing this model as the final word on bitcoin’s valuation. Instead, he says he regards “Metcalfe’s Law [as]… a way to think about [bitcoin’s] value.”

The model has proven itself well enough in real time to justify paying close attention to it. I first wrote about this in December 2020, when bitcoin was trading above $20,000 and the model determined its fair value to be below $20,000. Though bitcoin shot past $60,000 in the three months following that column, the implication of the model was that this was just one of the cryptocurrency’s periodic, random fluctuations on either side of fair value. Sure enough, by mid-2022, bitcoin was trading below fair value as determined by the model.

If a move from $20,000 to over $60,000 looks like more than just a “random fluctuation,” you should know that bitcoin’s fluctuations relative to fair value are no more extreme than for other assets. The bitcoin-to-fair-value ratio over the last decade has traded as high as 4.8-to-1 (in December 2017) and as low as 0.3-to-1 (in September 2016). The ratio currently is 1.9-to-1.

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To put these swings in context, consider what the equivalent high and low ratios would be for U.S. stocks. For illustration purposes, I assume that the stock market’s fair value is its average P/E ratio, though you could pick other valuation models and get similar results. Based on this assumption, since 1871, the stock-market-to-fair-value ratio has been as high as 7.7-to-1 and as low as 0.3-to-1.

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Or consider gold GC00, +1.90%, to which bitcoin is sometimes compared and which recently also soared to an all-time high. To calculate its fair value, I turn to another model proposed by Erb (along with Duke University finance professor Campbell Harvey) that equates gold’s fair value to the historical average ratio of gold’s price to the U.S. consumer-price index. On that assumption, the gold-to-fair-value ratio since the early 1970s has been as high as 2.3-to-1 and as low as 0.4-to-1.

Bitcoin as an inflation hedge?
Given that bitcoin and gold have simultaneously risen to new all-time highs, you might argue that both are discounting the same underlying factor — higher inflation in the coming months and years. If so, then bitcoin’s fair value should be a function of inflation rather than Metcalfe’s Law.

It’s difficult to make this case, given the low correlation between the two assets. Consider the correlation coefficient between the monthly returns of gold and bitcoin. (A coefficient of 1.0 would mean that the two are completely correlated with each other, while a coefficient of minus 1.0 would mean the two are inversely correlated. A coefficient of zero would mean there is no detectable relationship between the two.) Over the last decade, the coefficient has been just 0.04, which statistically is not significantly different than zero.

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In an email, Erb told me that he thinks bitcoin’s rise since the beginning of this year reflects the increase in assets under management at bitcoin exchange-traded funds. It was in January that the SEC allowed such ETFs to exist, and since then the increase in these funds’ assets appears to be correlated with the rise in bitcoin’s price. Erb added that there is no way to know for sure whether the increase in the ETFs’ assets under management actually caused the price increase.

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Regardless, Erb continued, he doesn’t believe that the advent of bitcoin ETFs means Metcalfe’s Law is no longer a helpful basis for thinking about the cryptocurrency’s fair value. Instead, he views bitcoin ETFs as yet another factor that can cause bitcoin to deviate above and below fair value. If bitcoin were to enter into a bear market and investors dumped their bitcoin ETFs, for example, you could expect bitcoin’s price to fall significantly.

The bottom line of Metcalfe’s Law as it applies to bitcoin? At some point in the future, the cryptocurrency will once again trade at, or below, fair value. That value today is around $35,000.

https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/% ... B%E5%AE%9A%E5%BE%8B

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https://www.coinfairvalue.com/coins/bitcoin/

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKEsgX2CaR4&t=42s