靠直覺做交易，才能擊敗其他交易員

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A recent study by a group of researchers fromCambridge University, suggested that ‘Gut feelings’ play a key part in successful financial trading. However, many remain distrustful of 'gut feel', ‘intuition' and ‘emotions’, preferring to fall back on intellect and analysis. It is worth remembering that the data, news, and price action available is also being read and processed by thousands of other equally capable, smart and intelligent people. At that point, there is little advantage from raw data and accessible information, but there is an advantage from 'deep knowledge' in the form of ‘gut-feel’, or instinctive behaviours. Trading and investing, are as much behavioural and emotional activities, as they are intellectual ones. Warren Buffett summed it up perfectly when he said, 'Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ, it's not Rocket Science'.


資料來源: elitetrader.com

dpong

說直覺其實有點太浪漫派，其實直覺可以解釋成潛意識吧？潛意識也就是平日訓練的累積，大腦為了降低負載，會讓一些決策交給 "感覺"，務實一點的說法 - "經驗"會比較能被接受吧？

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不錯的評論:

To date - by far my largest gains have been on instinct trades spanning 2 decades. I don't get them that often, 0-3 times per year. These trades I always pull the trigger and layer in big, using risk mgmt(按: management). Most of my trading is very conservative rules based with good risk mgmt.


A real good trader develops their rules and follows them. A great trader knows those rare occasions when you break the rules. Logic & discipline keep your head above water, instincts & guts are where the huge gains are made.

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這個評論也不錯，他不相信直覺扮演的角色:

Most money is made using algorithms and it seems it's rather the human traders that are going bust more often. A human with all of the various emotions is far more unstable to do a task that requires ruthless discipline and an emotionless approach. Anything from sleep deprivation to marital problems to severe losing (or winning) streaks to massive volatility can and will affect the human trader. No amount of experience can save him from all these scenarios.

eddy

dpong 發表於 2017-8-4 09:54
說直覺其實有點太浪漫派，其實直覺可以解釋成潛意識吧？潛意識也就是平日訓練的累積，大腦為了降低負載，會 ...

我認同，直覺其實就是長期經驗累積後的即時反應

sec2100

dpong 發表於 2017-8-4 09:54
說直覺其實有點太浪漫派，其實直覺可以解釋成潛意識吧？潛意識也就是平日訓練的累積，大腦為了降低負載，會 ...

感謝d大的評論。