三月漲50BP機率一半，2022年會升息五次
本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2022-2-6 09:00 編輯https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-bears-brace-challenges-consumer-210000613.html
The Fed has been winding down its purchases of Treasury securities and has said rate hikes are unlikely until that process is set to conclude by mid-March. Before the January jobs data -- which also showed a bigger-than-expected jump in wage growth -- interest-rate futures were pricing in four quarter-point rate increases this year, beginning in March. By the end of the day they priced in near-even odds of a half-point move in March, the first since 2000, and more than five quarter-point increases by year-end.
Long-dated yields face near-term upward pressure from next week’s auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries, which will determine coupon rates for securities maturing in February 2032 and February 2062. The 10-year note’s is less than 10 basis points below the level needed to obtain a 2% coupon rate. The 30-year auction carries additional baggage -- the last new 30-year auction in November drew historically weak demand.
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