美國聯準會之利率走升有41%在2022年就發生
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/heres-why-the-market-may-be-wrong-about-the-federal-reserve-and-interest-rates.html“The supply-demand imbalances, some of them we think will resolve themselves in the next six to 12 months,” Kaplan said. “But again some of them we think are likely to be more persistent, driven by a number of structural changes in the economy.”
“We have to be ready for the idea that there’s upside risks to inflation,” he said. “Certainly, the anecdotal evidence is overwhelming that this is a very tight labor market.” A tight Fed would drive up borrowing costs for a government that has been on a spending binge over the past year and wants to do even more with infrastructure. Mikkelsen said the credit market, which sent rates sharply lower despite the hawkish Fed, is misjudging which way the central bank is heading. From the market’s perspective, it is seeing just a 41% chance that the Fed hikes rates by July 2022, according to the CME’s FedWatch tracker.
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